This report dissects the seismic diplomatic rupture between India and Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024. The report argues that functional cooperation—spanning border security, water sharing, and trade—has been weaponized by political grievances under Muhammad Yunus’s Interim Government. This erosion of trust is compounded by Dhaka’s geopolitical pivot toward Pakistan and China, fueling New Delhi’s fears of a two-front security threat.

Domestically, a volatile transition looms: the Awami League is sidelined, while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and new actors, such as the National Citizens’ Party, position themselves for the February 2026 elections. Ultimately, the report warns that without immediate intervention, temporary frictions risk hardening into permanent structural impediments. The path forward requires “bleeding valve” diplomacy—the activation of Track II channels to restore good faith before and after the elections. India must diversify its engagement beyond the Awami League to manage the transition, ensuring that the political sunset of the Hasina era does not plunge bilateral ties into permanent darkness.