The global energy system is being reshaped, and not smoothly. Trade in fossil fuels is giving way to trade in clean energy technologies and the minerals needed to build them. Those supply chains are exposed to great power rivalry, export controls, regional conflict and the weaponisation of fuel and critical minerals. Climate change adds its own stress through extreme weather, resource pressure and shifting demand.
India and the EU both feel this. Europe is phasing out Russian energy while pursuing an ambitious decarbonisation agenda. India is expanding its non-fossil capacity quickly but remains heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons. Both are exposed to concentrated critical mineral supply chains.
Existing India-EU energy cooperation is significant, but it is largely techno-economic in focus. What it lacks is a dedicated geopolitical risk dimension. This project supplies that. It examines how long-term energy trends intersect with geopolitical and climate risk, and how those intersections could threaten the energy security and clean energy transitions of India and Europe through 2050.
At its centre are three controlled scenarios. Each shows how a specific geopolitical disruption could alter current projections for the global energy mix and its supply chains. A group of experts from India and Europe will test and refine the scenarios through a simulation exercise. The aim is a clearer understanding of how each side is likely to respond under pressure, and of where structured cooperation could reduce risk and build resilience.
The project also looks outward, at how India, the EU and Germany could work together in third countries in Africa and the Indo-Pacific to support the clean energy transition in the Global South.
What the project will produce
- Three policy reports, one for each scenario, assessing the implications for India-EU energy security and recommending responses.
- A final report and strategic roadmap, setting out a framework for structured, long-term India-EU energy and climate cooperation.
- An international expert workshop, built around a simulation of the three scenarios.
- An expert network across India and Europe that can continue to inform energy cooperation beyond the project.
The outputs are written for government officials, strategic planners and industry stakeholders in India and Europe. They are designed to inform existing mechanisms, including the EU-India Clean Energy and Climate Partnership, the India-EU Trade and Technology Council and the Indo-German Energy Forum.
Project Partners
