Splitting the Ladder: New Escalation Dynamics between India and Pakistan

This paper examines India-Pakistan escalation dynamics pre- and post-nuclearization (1998). It introduces a novel descriptive escalation ladder, dissecting crises from 2001 to 2019 into Means and Objectives categories, elucidating new escalation patterns.

The paper examines India-Pakistan escalation dynamics pre- and post-nuclearization (1998), identifying complexities in applying Cold War era theories due to the unique nature of their relationship. It emphasizes the longstanding ‘normalized’ violence along the Line of Control in Kashmir. A novel descriptive escalation ladder is introduced, dissecting crises from 2001 to 2019 into Means and Objectives categories, elucidating new escalation patterns. Breaks in past dynamics by India and Pakistan during crises in 2016 and 2019 are analyzed alongside risk control methods. The paper delves into the roles of sub-conventional actors, the minimalist nature of bilateral relations, and evolving third-party involvement in crisis management. It highlights maintained confidence-building measures and concludes by mapping crisis moves and identifying maneuvering space below the nuclear threshold, reflecting India’s historical approach to engaging with Pakistan in crises.

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