The evolution of India’s Myanmar policy presents a complex case study of balancing strategic imperatives with changing ground realities. Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has experienced unprecedented internal turmoil. With the State Administration Council (SAC) losing significant territorial control and powerful resistance groups emerging India’s traditionally Tatmadaw-centric engagement approach faces new challenges and opportunities. 

At this discussion, CSDR launched its policy paper on India-Myanmar relations.

The paper highlights three critical dimensions of India’s engagement: political, operational (security), and economic. While India has historically maintained a two-track policy engaging military and civilian stakeholders, the post-2021 landscape shows a marked preference for SAC engagement despite its weakening position. This approach, coupled with domestic challenges like the Manipur crisis and border security concerns, raises questions about the sustainability of India’s current policy framework.

The changing dynamics, particularly the Arakan Army’s control over crucial areas near Indian projects like Kaladan and China’s multifaceted influence across di6erent stakeholders, necessitate a potential policy recalibration. The paper suggests that while India may maintain the Tatmadaw as a central actor in its engagement, there’s growing recognition of the need to broaden diplomatic outreach to other stakeholders, potentially through the appointment of a Special Envoy.

The discussion explored both immediate policy challenges and long-term strategic considerations in India’s engagement with Myanmar during this critical period of transformation.

Discussion Questions:

• How should India prepare for the possibility of Myanmar’s fragmentation into multiple centers of authority, particularly given China’s established influence with various stakeholders?
• How can India e6ectively balance its historical institutional engagement with the Tatmadaw while developing new communication channels with emerging power centers in Myanmar?
• To what extent does China’s influence over both the SAC and various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) a6ect India’s strategic choices in Myanmar? How can India develop its points of leverage?
• Given the deteriorating situation along the India-Myanmar border and domestic challenges in India’s Northeast, what alternatives exist to the current hard security approach of border fencing and FMR termination?
• How might India’s connectivity projects, notably the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, be reimagined in light of changing ground realities and the Arakan Army’s control over key areas?
• What role could India play in regional efforts for conflict resolution in Myanmar, and how might this affect its bilateral engagement strategy?

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