Blind Spot
The Blindspot offers a unique lens on international affairs and foreign policy. As its name suggests, it illuminates overlooked perspectives and under-explored issues in global discourse.
The Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement: New Delhi’s Calculus
The Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, triggered by Middle Eastern security concerns, poses limited military threats to India but increases Pakistan's diplomatic leverage in the Arab world. New Delhi's likely response involves deepening economic and strategic ties with Gulf states to maintain its regional influence and counter Pakistan's growing diplomatic capital.
Find out More >
The $100,000 Question: What the H-1B Visa fee hike means for India
Trump's $100,000 H-1B fee hike threatens India's IT sector, which depends heavily on US market access. While major firms may absorb costs through localization, smaller companies face profitability challenges. Indian STEM students' career pathways are jeopardized, straining bilateral ties. Long-term solutions require building domestic ecosystems to retain talent and exploring alternative global markets.
Find out More >
Bangladesh Student Union Elections: The Jamaat-E-Islami’s New Leverage
Jamaat-e-Islami's student wing swept Bangladesh's university elections in September 2025, winning decisively at Dhaka and Jahangirnagar universities. These results, seen as bellwethers for February 2026 national elections, signal the Islamist party's growing influence post-Hasina ouster, raising concerns in India while potentially strengthening Jamaat's bargaining position with Bangladesh's other political parties.
Find out More >
Building at the Edge: The Great Nicobar Project Debate
India's INR 81,000 crore Great Nicobar development plan—featuring a major container port, airport, and township—sparked controversy between Sonia Gandhi and Environment Minister Yadav. The project promises commercial and strategic benefits near Malacca Strait but threatens irreversible ecological damage to old-growth forests, coral reefs, and vulnerable tribal communities' rights and livelihoods.
Find out More >
India at SCO: Optics Without Anchors
PM Modi's attendance at the SCO summit featured notable optics with Putin and Xi Jinping, projecting India's strategic autonomy amid US tariff pressures. While symbolic moments suggested warming ties with Russia and China, substantive outcomes remained limited. The real test lies in whether these gestures translate into concrete gains or are merely diplomatic theater.
Find out More >
Reforming Command: The Politics and Practice of Theaterisation
India's military services aired differing views on theaterisation at the Ran Samvaad conclave, with the Air Force favoring coordination over joint theatre commands while the Navy supports full integration. Operation Sindoor's success has reinforced Air Force arguments for centralized control. Changing strategic conditions and limited political leadership may delay the reform initiative.
Find out More >
PM Modi in Japan: Symbolism and Substance amid Renewed Strategic Convergence
India and Japan concluded their 15th Annual Summit with 13 agreements and Japan's $68 billion investment commitment over the next decade. The partnership emphasizes technology cooperation, supply chain resilience, and shared concerns over China's regional aggression. While long-term potential remains strong, short-term trade diversification faces practical constraints amid Trump's tariffs.
Find out More >
Trump-Lee Summit: Balancing Trade Deals, Defense Costs, and Trump’s Peace Diplomacy
The August 25, 2025 Trump-Lee summit addressed North Korea engagement, with both leaders expressing openness to renewed diplomacy despite Pyongyang's dismissive responses. South Korea committed $350 billion in US investments and increased defense spending, while contentious issues like military base ownership and burden-sharing remained unresolved, preventing a joint statement.
Find out More >
India–South Korea Partnership on SMRs: Tapping into Strategic Potential for Clean Energy
This Blindspot examines India-South Korea partnership potential in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as India targets 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047. Despite policy momentum and INR 20,000 crore SMR allocation, regulatory constraints including the 1962 Atomic Energy Act and nuclear liability laws remain key barriers requiring legislative reform for meaningful collaboration.
Find out More >
Beyond Nayara: The EU Sanctions as a Challenge to India’s Energy Trade
The EU's 18th sanctions package targets Nayara Energy, an Indian refinery with Russian ownership, and bans Russian-origin petroleum products from Europe. This affects Indian oil refiners' European exports and highlights supply chain vulnerabilities. While India's energy security isn't acutely threatened, refiners face costly adjustments amid potential US tariff pressures.
Find out More >
This India-China tactical rapprochement is both familiar and unprecedented
This BLINDSPOT examines India's recent tactical rapprochement with China amid deteriorating US-India relations under Trump. While such pivots aren't new for India's multi-alignment strategy, China's unprecedented economic coercion and India's strategic vulnerabilities create risks that tactical improvements could evolve into structural changes favoring Beijing's long-term strategic objectives.
Find out More >
Fixing ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA): A litmus test for India-ASEAN relations
This article examines the growing strain in the ASEAN-India trade relationship, highlighting structural imbalances in AITIGA, India's rising trade deficit, and ASEAN’s perceived tilt toward China. It outlines India’s strategic shift toward bilateralism and calls for simultaneous domestic reform and credible FTA renegotiation to restore economic balance and trust.
Find out More >
Funding Innovation: Assessing India’s New RDI Scheme
This article examines India's new Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) scheme, launched July 1, 2025, with USD 11.5 billion funding to boost private R&D in sunrise sectors. While addressing India's historically low R&D spending (0.6-0.7% of GDP versus global 2.67%), the scheme faces implementation challenges including bureaucratic approval processes and limited scope for early-stage projects.
Find out More >
CSL-KSOE Shipbuilding Alliance: A Turning Point for India-South Korea Cooperation
This article analyzes the July 4, 2025 MoU between India's Cochin Shipyard Limited and South Korea's HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering. It argues this shipbuilding alliance represents a turning point in India-South Korea relations, moving beyond previous transactional agreements toward long-term strategic cooperation with technology transfer and joint global opportunities.
Find out More >
Downsizing the U.S. troop presence in South Korea: A Turning Point in North East Asian Security?
A Washington think tank proposes reducing US troops in South Korea from 28,500 to 10,000, citing the need to prioritize China threats. Trump's "America First" policies and South Korea's new progressive President Lee Jae-Myung create potential diplomatic space for rethinking Korean Peninsula security arrangements and reducing military presence.
Find out More >
MDL’s Acquistion of Colombo Dockyard amid Transitioning India-Sri Lanka Ties
MDL acquired 51% stake in debt-ridden Colombo Dockyard for $52.96 million, marking India's strategic port investment in Sri Lanka. The acquisition reflects shifting India-Sri Lanka ties toward investment-based partnership, addresses China's dominance in Colombo's port sector, and provides India crucial foothold in Indian Ocean maritime operations.
Find out More >
The Dalai Lama Succession Question: New Statements and Old Dilemmas
The Dalai Lama recently affirmed his institution will continue after his death, with the Gaden Phodrang Trust having sole authority over reincarnation recognition. China immediately countered, claiming Beijing must approve successors. This succession dispute remains highly contentious, with geopolitical implications for India-China relations and the Tibetan exile community's future.
Find out More >
Strengthening India’s Defense Ecosystem: How Policy Reforms Can Unlock Manufacturing Potential
India remains a top arms importer despite DAP 2020 defense reforms. The policy's conflicting Indigenous Content and IPR transfer requirements discourage foreign investment, yielding only $21.74 million FDI. The Ministry of Defense's 2025 reforms must prioritize manufacturing over IP transfers and establish Defense R&D SEZs to achieve self-reliance.
Find out More >
Party Before Principle: How South Korea’s Political Culture Threatens Democracy
South Korea's 2024 political crisis, triggered by President Yoon's martial law declaration and impeachment, revealed deep structural flaws despite citizens' democratic response. Acting President Han Duck-soo's controversial actions and both major parties' internal divisions expose how factional loyalty undermines democratic institutions, threatening Korea's democratic resilience.
Find out More >
India-EU: Forging a Security Compact in a Turbulent World
India and the EU are advancing toward a security partnership amid shared challenges - Europe faces US policy uncertainty and Ukraine conflict while India confronts China-Pakistan threats. Key opportunities include defense trade, space cooperation, and a Security of Information Agreement, though diplomatic capacity gaps and NATO relationship complexities remain hurdles.
Find out More >
A New Draft for the Space Activities Bill: Amidst A Sea-Change in India’s Space Sector
India's Space Activities Bill is being redrafted after eight years, aiming to grant statutory powers to IN-SPACe and address private sector concerns like IP ownership and insurance access. With India's space economy targeting growth from $8.4 billion to $44 billion by 2033, legislative framework has become crucial for sector expansion.
Find out More >
Beyond the Battlefield: Pakistan’s Strategic Reckoning in the Wake of Operation Sindoor
Pakistan's post-Operation Sindoor strategy focuses on three key areas: reversing negative optics by capitalizing on India's internal dissent, externalizing blame for domestic problems onto India, and countering diplomatic marginalization. This approach uses narrative warfare to maintain internal cohesion while positioning Pakistan as a restrained actor against Indian aggression internationally.
Find out More >
The Hotline That Prevented War: India-Pakistan Crisis Management Through Military Diplomacy
On May 10, 2025, escalating India-Pakistan tensions threatening conventional war were halted by a crucial DGMO hotline call at 15:35 hours, achieving ceasefire by 17:00. This incident highlighted both the effectiveness of military-to-military communication channels and their limitations in managing increasingly complex conflicts between nuclear-armed neighbors.
Find out More >
Will India’s ‘Integrated Deterrence’ Stem Cross-Border Terror?
This blindspot analyzes India's "Operation Sindoor" to argue that India has evolved from reactive "strategic restraint" to proactive "Integrated Deterrence," combining military strikes, diplomatic pressure, and economic leverage to fundamentally change the cost-benefit calculus for Pakistan's use of terrorist proxies.
Find out More >
The Indian Navy’s Role and Impact in Operation Sindoor: Historical Precedents and Future Imperatives
India's Operation Sindoor deployed 36 naval ships, including a Carrier Battle Group, establishing surveillance and de facto blockade along Pakistan's coast. Following India's new "any attack equals act of war" policy, the Navy is shifting from deterrence to compellence strategy, requiring faster response times and potentially earlier escalation in future Pakistan conflicts.
Find out More >
Op Sindoor: Conventional Operations Under the Nuclear Shadow
This article analyzes India's evolving response to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism from diplomatic protests to military retaliation. It examines the 2016 Uri, 2019 Balakot, and 2025 Pahalgam operations, exploring Modi's "new normal" doctrine that treats terrorist attacks as acts of war while assessing deterrence effectiveness and escalation risks between nuclear neighbors.
Find out More >
Countermeasures and Restraint: India’s conduct in Op Sindoor is a rare victory for international law
India’s treatment of ‘terrorism’ as an act of war, its calibrated military cross-border response against Pakistan against terror targets, and its cessation of hostilities after it deemed its response over (with any escalation being made contingent on Pakistani action) – collectively advances the norm of self-defence against terrorism. But more specifically, it illustrates a rare instance of a state credibly upholding other international norms in its response to terrorism, without excesses against another state’s (Pakistan’s) sovereignty.
Find out More >
Partners or Spectators? America’s Role in India’s Security Calculations Post-Op Sindoor
Operation Sindoor has strained India-US relations, as the US adopted a perceived neutral stance rather than supporting India against Pakistan. While America helped broker a ceasefire, India was disappointed by the lack of clear backing regarding terrorism concerns and perceived equating of India with Pakistan. Meanwhile, Russian defense systems gained positive attention for their performance. This strategic friction may accelerate India's diversification of defense partnerships, complicating the Modi-Trump agreement to increase American defense purchases and potentially bolstering Russia's influence in Indian military procurement decisions.
Find out More >
Water as Leverage: India’s IWT Suspension is here to stay
India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack marks a strategic shift in India-Pakistan relations. By linking water access to terrorism, India has created powerful leverage against Pakistan, for whom the Indus waters are vital. Despite a ceasefire, India shows no intention of reversing this decision. With plans to accelerate infrastructure development on western rivers and Pakistan's limited options, water has replaced Kashmir as the central bilateral issue. This represents a calculated, long-term recalibration of India's Pakistan strategy, unlikely to be reversed.
Find out More >
A Fragile Pause: Caught Between Nuclear Signaling, Off-Ramps, and Escalation Traps
In the recent India-Pakistan crisis, the nuclear dimension loomed not in overt threats, but in its deliberate ambiguity. The near silence of formal nuclear signaling, broken only by subtle cues and warnings, just to be walked back on, may itself be seen as a signal. It suggested not restraint, but a confidence in mutual vulnerability. This makes the current pause not a step toward resolution, but a lull under the long shadow of further escalation.
Find out More >
Blind Spots and Silver Linings: Past and Prologue of Op. Sindoor
While Operation Sindoor successfully imposed costs on Pakistan and demonstrated India's resolve against terrorism, its execution revealed crucial strategic insights about the limitations of India's current military doctrine. Despite operational successes, the operation highlighted that India's approach remains framed around deterrence rather than compellence—a fundamental misalignment with the challenge at hand.
Find out More >
Acts of Terror are Acts of War: What It means, Does not mean, and One Question
India's unofficial declaration that terror attacks constitute "acts of war" follows Pakistan's similar statement about water rights. It demonstrates India's resolve for swift cross-border action against terror infrastructure without committing to conventional war. The key question isn't India's capability to respond, but whether such responses risk unwanted international attention.
Find out More >
‘Deterrence By Exhaustion’: Nine Elements Of India’s Emerging Strategy Against Terrorism
If we carefully examine the various measures Delhi has adopted over the years, especially since the beginning of this crisis, it is possible to see the emergence of a new strategy in Delhi to address sub-conventional warfare from Pakistan. The emerging Indian strategy appears to be ‘deterrence by punishment plus’, which I term ‘deterrence by exhaustion’.
Find out More >
Twelve Arguments To Make Sense Of ‘Operation Sindoor’
Operation Sindoor seeks to create a tripwire situation regarding escalation. The Indian doctrine underlined by it is that by carrying out a terrorist attack against India, it is actually Pakistan — its adversary — that is initiating a conventional military conflict. The onus is on Pakistan to ensure there is no terrorist attack if it seeks to prevent a military conflict as a terror attack will, in all probability, lead to a conventional response — with the latter being the rule and its non-occurrence being the exception.
Find out More >
Starlink’s Path to India Through Telecom Giant Partnerships
Elon Musk's Starlink has secured partnerships with India's telecom giants Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, marking a dramatic reversal from previous opposition. While regulatory hurdles remain, these alliances likely accelerate Starlink's India entry amid complex geopolitical considerations involving the Trump administration and India's goals for digital connectivity in rural areas.
Find out More >
India-South Korea Relations after Yoon’s Impeachment
South Korean President Yoon's declaration of martial law in December 2024 led to his impeachment. While India-South Korea economic relations remain stable with bilateral trade exceeding $27 billion, strategic cooperation may decline if a China-friendly government takes power, potentially undermining regional security initiatives in the Indo-Pacific that counter Beijing's influence.
Find out More >
India’s Energy Crossroads: Balancing Domestic Reforms with Global Alliances
India is reforming its oil sector through the Oilfields Amendment Bill to boost domestic production amid declining output and high import dependence. While pursuing untapped reserves and attracting foreign expertise, India balances geopolitical pressures—maintaining Russian oil purchases despite sanctions while strategically increasing US imports to strengthen diplomatic ties with the Trump administration.
Find out More >
India-Japan Cooperation in Africa: A New Era of Economic Engagement
Japan launched the Japan-India Cooperation Initiative for Sustainable Economic Development in Africa, revitalizing collaboration eight years after the AAGC. The initiative aims to counter China's influence by promoting industrial concentration, sustainable development, and critical mineral supply chains, while positioning both countries as alternative partners amid Trump's aid suspensions and growing global uncertainty.
Find out More >
Von Der Leyen Visit: “Strategic Priority” enters EU-India Ties
Von der Leyen's visit to India featured high-level meetings, FTA commitment, and enhanced security cooperation amid global power shifts. The visit emphasized pragmatic interests over shared values, with defense cooperation gaining prominence. As Trump 2.0 looms, both sides navigate changing geopolitical dynamics, with India making subtle concessions on Ukraine while the EU avoids Russia sanctions discussions.
Find out More >
Troubled Waters: India-Bangladesh Relations in a Post-Hasina Era
Recent protests in Bangladesh over the Teesta River dispute highlight growing tensions in India-Bangladesh water relations. The BNP's criticism of India and the interim government, coupled with upcoming Ganges Waters Treaty renewal in 2026, presents complex diplomatic challenges. Technical solutions remain hindered by political complications in both countries.
Find out More >
Recalibrating Priorities: Modi’s First Summit with Trump 2.0
PM Modi's first summit with re-elected President Trump focused heavily on trade and defense cooperation, with India taking proactive steps to address US concerns about trade imbalances. While achieving progress on bilateral commerce and energy partnerships, strategic alignment on China remains unclear, reflecting a potentially significant shift in US priorities under Trump 2.0.
Find out More >
Delhi’s Taliban Pivot: Russia Courts India as Regional Power Dynamics Shift
Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov proposed India's inclusion in the Afghanistan Quadrilateral Group (with Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan), following India's historic diplomatic meeting with the Taliban. This invitation comes as India cautiously shifts its Taliban policy, while Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan wanes. However, India may prefer maintaining bilateral engagement over joining multilateral frameworks.
Find out More >
India’s Critical Minerals Push: New Mission to Counter China Dependence
India announces National Critical Minerals Mission to reduce its heavy mineral import dependence on China (82% for lithium). The initiative includes launching a Mining Tenement System, supporting tech startups, and planning financial incentives across production stages. Mixed results from recent auctions highlight technological and capacity constraints.
Find out More >
The Trump Effect: Navigating U.S.-India Relations in an ‘America First’ Era
Trump's second presidential term signals shifting US-India dynamics, with early bilateral engagement but potential challenges from his "America First" agenda. Key issues include immigration restrictions, trade tariffs, and Indo-Pacific strategy. Despite opportunities in defense cooperation, Trump's unpredictable China stance and internal policy divisions suggest India should adopt a cautious approach.
Find out More >
China’s New Brahmaputra Dam: Fresh Worries for India Amidst Rapprochement
China has approved construction of the world's largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River, generating concerns in India. The project, estimated at USD 127 billion, will produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually—triple the capacity of Three Gorges dam. While China promises no negative downstream impact, India remains wary of strategic water vulnerabilities.
Find out More >
Shipbuilding and Repair: Actualizing the Potential of India-ROK Strategic Cooperation
India plans to establish two mega shipbuilding parks by 2030, aiming to capture a share of the $100 billion global market. The Republic of Korea is identified as a crucial partner, offering expertise in technology, training, and shipyard automation. This partnership aligns with South Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy and would benefit both nations' strategic interests.
Find out More >
India readjusts as Assad’s rule in Damascus ends
The article discusses Syria's recent political upheaval with President Assad's flight to Moscow following a rebel takeover of Damascus on December 9th. India, historically an Assad ally, has responded pragmatically by accepting the new reality while advocating for Syria's unity and inclusive governance. This shift marks a significant change in India's Middle East policy and presents new regional challenges.
Find out More >
Turkey’s Expanding Strategic Space in the Indian Ocean Region
Turkey is expanding its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region through agreements with Somalia, involvement in regional disputes, and defense industry expansion. This growing influence, coupled with China's presence, poses complex challenges for India, potentially limiting its regional policy space and requiring a recalibration of its Indian Ocean strategy.
Find out More >
A Steady Gait in India’s Semiconductor Mission
India's semiconductor mission is gaining momentum with recent partnerships and investments. The Adani-Tower fab project shows promise, pending approval. Talent development is crucial, with international collaborations addressing this need. The Indian Semiconductor Mission's Phase II aims to boost the ecosystem. While progress is steady, achieving self-reliance in advanced chips remains a long-term goal.
Find out More >
INS Arighaat: India’s second SSBN is cause for both celebration and debate
India's commissioning of INS Arighaat, its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, highlights the country's evolving nuclear deterrence strategy. The development also signals potential shifts in India's strategic partnerships for future submarine programs, moving beyond traditional Russian collaboration.
Find out More >
Rajnath in Washington, Modi in Kyiv: The Strategic and Tactical in India’s Foreign Policy
On 22 August, India’s Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, began a four-day visit to the US, parallel to the Indian PM’s visit to Ukraine. The visit underwrites the well-evident desire in both New Delhi and Washington for a broader defense relationship. However, couched within this larger desire, it also acts as a new barometer for Indian foreign policy – a mix of tactical decisions with new risks along with strategic shifts.
Find out More >
A New Social Contract in Bangladesh: Key Actors
Bangladesh is at a critical juncture as recent protest movements shape its uncertain path forward. Given the new set of actors involved, it is crucial to understand their interests, goals, and interactions in the socio-political arena to comprehend Dhaka’s future trajectory and India’s strategic options.
Find out More >
India-Bangladesh after Hasina
The Indian government’s responses to the developments in Bangladesh have been careful and measured despite the shrill media coverage. This indicates a willingness to undertake a new approach towards Bangladesh in light of such radical shifts and a delayed appreciation of the true extent of popular angst towards the Awami League and, by extension, India.
Find out More >
Friend-Turned-Enemy’s Enemy: Pakistan-Tajikistan Cooperation Against the Taliban
While Pakistan-Tajikistan ties are old and cross-cutting in terms of areas of interest, Afghanistan has been increasingly emerging as a salient point of convergence, especially in cooperation against the Taliban. This is a relatively new and growing factor with implications for India’s interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia at large.
Find out More >
Navigating Complex Tides: India-Sri Lanka Cooperation Amid Strategic Autonomy(ies)
Recent setbacks in Indian interests in Sri Lanka indicate new challenges for New Delhi's ties with Colombo. However, these setbacks do not entirely disrupt the previously positive bilateral relationship. They are partly due to Colombo's constraints and need to safeguard its interests amidst a financial crisis and ahead of presidential elections.
Find out More >
Indian Airforce’s shrinking squadrons: Shortfall and rationalization amid the China challenge
India’s need to bolster overall deterrence against China (and the prospect of a two-front war) hinges on air power. Therefore, procurement and investment plans will be crucial to India’s future security and policy toward China in response to the ongoing depletion.
Find out More >
India’s Maiden Critical Mineral Blocks Auction Results: A Setback
The results of India's maiden critical mineral blocks auction are a significant setback, given the country’s absolute import dependency on minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are critical for the country’s green energy transition and manufacturing ambitions.
Find out More >
We believe that understanding why things change in this world determines our ability to predict when they will change. Our focus is on geopolitical shifts worldwide, with a keen eye on Southern Asia.